REF.gms (Outdated)

'Ref.gms' defines model's baseline. It determines the total factor productivity (TFP) growth that permits MIRAGE's GDP growth to match the GDP growth forecasts used. So, in the baseline the TFP is endogenous, while the GDP is exogenous. The inverse is true in the simulation.

 * ---- PRE-EXPERIMENT ----
 * End of Multi-Fiber Agreement (2005)
 taxAMF(i,r,s,Temps,Simul)$(AMF(i) and ord(Temps)>4) 				= 0;
 * ---- BASELINE ----
 File log1 /''/;
 $include Slicing.gms
 While(t1 < card(Temps),
 *$include NEXTBL.gms
 $include NEXTSlice.gms
 $include changemode.gms
    put log1;
    loop(Temps$(ord(Temps)=t1), put 'Year ',, ' complete' //);

The TFP growth must take into account all exogenous shocks that are to happen. Shocks common to all baseline, like GDP and population growth, are defined in NEXTSlice.gms. The user should be only concerned by more specific shocks. In the previous example, the end of Multi-Fiber Agreement in 2005 is implemented.

All variables and parameters are updated to their new values in the file NEXTSlice.gms. This file solves the model and automatically slices the shocks in small parts if the convergence fails.

The old file NEXTBL.gms can also be used, but it is fully integrated in NEXTSlice.gms.