Running a simulation in MIRAGE-e
If the baseline consists in only one step, the Simul.gms
file can be called directly from RefStep1 :
r=.\Restart\refstep1 s=.\Restart\sim gdx=.\GDX\sim lo=3
Otherwise, Simul.gms
has to be called from the RefStep2:
r=.\Restart\refstep2 s=.\Restart\sim gdx=.\GDX\sim lo=3
Trade simulation
Trade policy simulations are very easy to implement, as only the scenario in Simul.gms
have to be changed, for instance, a full world-wide liberalization only requires the following lines :
Tariff_C(i,r,s,Temps,sim)$(ord(Temps)>1) = 0; Tariff_IC(i,r,s,Temps,sim)$(ord(Temps)>1) = 0;
Different trade-related parameters can be part of the simulation :
- $Tariff^C$ and $Tariff^{IC}$ are tariff rates from MAcMap respectively affecting final and intermediate goods
- $taxEXP^C$ and $taxEXP^{IC}$ are generic export taxes, and $taxMFA^C$ and $taxMFA^{IC}$ specific export taxes related to the multifibre agreement
- $NTM^C$ and $NTM^{IC}$ are ad-valorem equivalents of NTMs in goods (see here)
- $taxSER^C$ and $taxSER^{IC}$ are ad-valorem equivalents of NTMs in Services (see here)
- $tCostTF$ is the ad-valorem equivalent for time spent in customs
Climate change policy simulation
Climate change policy simulations require several additional steps
1. Define carbon markets
All GHG mitigation policies in MIRAGE-e 2 are centered around carbon markets, all indexed by the set c_em
. A carbon market is just a mapping of emissions to the perimeter of their climate change policy.
Definition of carbon markets
The carbon markets have to be written directly in the file data/maps/c_Markets.gms
following the example:
* Example cEUETS "EU ETS sectors" cEUNonETS "EU Non-ETS sectors and households" cCAN "Canadian market" cUSA "USA market"
Mapping of sectors to carbon markets
The mapping of sectors to carbon markets can be done in different ways:
- Direct mapping in the file
data/maps/map_jrCarbon.gms
as in the example :
OthManuf.France.cEUETS OthEITE.France.cEUETS Chemistry.France.cEUETS Minerals.France.cEUETS OthManuf.OthEU27.cEUETS OthEITE.OthEU27.cEUETS Chemistry.OthEU27.cEUETS Minerals.OthEU27.cEUETS
- Or by code in the file
data/maps/map_Carbon.gms
:
Map_carb(j,"Canada","cCAN") = yes; Map_carb(j,"USA","cUSA") = yes; Map_carb(j,r,'cEUNonETS')$(not Map_carb(j,r,'cEUETS') and (sameas(r,"France") or sameas(r,"OthEU27"))) = yes;
Mapping of households emissions to carbon markets
Mapping of households to carbon markets is done in the file data/maps/map_hCarbon.gms
, e.g.:
USA.cUSA Canada.cCAN France.cEUNonETS OthEU27.cEUNonETS
2. Define the policy simulation
Principle
GHG mitigation policies are defined on a carbon-market basis, and can be of two different types in MIRAGE-e 2:
- A carbon tax → set the $GHGTax$ parameter
- A cap and trade system → set the $GHGCap$ and $GHGIntensityCap$ parameters
- $GHGCap$ caps the level of emission
- $GHGIntensityCap$ caps the GHG-intensity of GDP
To set a carbon policy, you simply need to set one of these variables to a value different from 0, e.g.:
GHGTax("cEUETS",Temps,sim)$(ord(Temps)>1) = 0.01;
More convenient: the batinclude utility
In addition, MIRAGE-e proposes a batinclude utility ProgGMS/GHGTarget.gms
to ease the implementation of linear emission capping. This batinclude propose GHG caps that can can be of three different types:
- Aboslute : the target reduction is labeled in percetage change from a reference emissions in the past
- Intensity : the target reduction is labeled as a percentage reduction in GHG-intensity of GDP from a reference intensity in the past
- BAU : the target reduction is labeled as a percentage reduction in emissions in a future date, compared to the BAU scenario
The syntax is the following:
$batinclude ./ProgGMS/GHGTarget.gms %Market% %Reduction_type% %Reference_year% %Init_year% %End_year% %Percentage_cut%
Where:
%Market%
is one of the carbon market defined as explained above%Type%
is the type of commitment, and can beAbsolute
,Intensity
orBAU
%Reference_year%
is the basis for computing the reduction commitment (not necessary for a BAU-type commitment)%Init_year%
is the first year where the carbon policy will be implemented%End_year%
if the last year the carbon policy will be implemented%Percentage_cut%
is the percentage reduction (1 means 100% reduction) compared to the reference_year
Here is an example for the three different cases:
$batinclude ./ProgGMS/GHGTarget.gms cCanada Absolute "2011" "2011" "2030" 0.424412686089317 $batinclude ./ProgGMS/GHGTarget.gms cChina Intensity "2011" "2011" "2030" 0.515679332882182 $batinclude ./ProgGMS/GHGTarget.gms cMexico BAU "0" "2011" "2030" 0.22
Specific simulations
Entering / leaving the EU (Brexit)
NTMs in a free trade agreement
Paris Agreement on climate change
The Paris agreement on climate change is a policy used quite often, especially when integrated in the baseline for any trade policy evaluation.
Default Paris agreement
For the case of the Paris agreement, a specific GAMS file is prepared for an easy integration in the baseline (RefStep2.gms
) or as a policy simulation (Simul.gms
) : ProgGMS/ParisAgreement.gms
. This file proposes an implementation of the Paris Agreement in a standard aggregation, and only need to be called from Simul.gms
in case of a policy simulation or RefStep2.gms
in case of a baseline:
$include ./ProgGMS/ParisAgreement.gms
This file contains:
- The objectives of non-EU regions converted into emission reduction from 2011 emissions (see below)
- The specific objectives for EU and other ETS regions
- EU-ETS sectors respect their own reduction objective
- The commitment for the rest of the economy (other sectors and households) are set to compensate the difference with the Paris agreement commitment.
Changing the Paris agreement
All the conversion of the Paris agreement commitments to reductions compared to 2011 are done in R in the NDCs_R utility. Base NDC data (from ClimateObserver.org) as well as emissions data used for the conversion are handled directly in this R utility.
1. Clone the utility from git repository mirage-util-ndcs
2. Take the CorMM.txt file generated by the aggregation program and copy is inside the data directory of mirage-util-ndcs
3. Run the NDC aggregation utility
4. Adapt the ParisAgreement.gms
file such that the $batinclude
lines match the NDC utility output located in output/NDCs_MIRAGE.csv